Abstract in Englisch:

The analysis of demographic trends in Uganda and Côte d’Ivoire reveals a number of interesting results. The population of both countries is still growing steadily and becoming more youthful, in line with developments in most other sub-Saharan African states. This represents a major challenge for policymaking, especially with regard to the provision of jobs and quality education. At the same time, both Côte d’Ivoire and Uganda have been and continue to be net importers of immigrants, albeit for different reasons (economic or conflict-induced). The growing number of young people without economic opportunities and the consequent precarious prospects of leading a decent (family) life has led neither to a massive eruption of political violence, nor to the questioning of the legitimacy of the existing political order and established modes of political regulation. The trajectory of youth political engagement and mobilization is thus quite different from the countries of the Arab Spring. Incidents of youth becoming violent in Uganda and Côte d’Ivoire seem to occur in a context of elite-instigated and elite-controlled mobilization, with violence being one instrument among others in political competition. Economic exclusion makes it easier for politicians of all parties to manipulate youth when small amounts of money suffice to make young people attend election rallies or intimidate political opponents. In both Côte d’Ivoire and Uganda, the dominant, and ultimately successful, strategy of state elites remained their capacity to manage access to the official police and military apparatus, and to other private benefits for youth leaders.